UAB Ekotermija carried out the assessment of risks of the natural gas supply disruptions in Lithuania and modelling of possible scenarios according to Regulation (EU) No 994/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 October 2010 concerning measures to safeguard security of gas supply aimed at safeguarding the security of gas supply by ensuring the proper and continuous functioning of the internal market in natural gas (gas), by allowing for exceptional measures to be implemented when the market can no longer deliver the required gas supplies and by providing a clear definition and attribution of responsibilities among natural gas undertakings, the Member States and the Union regarding both preventive action and the reaction to concrete disruptions of supply. This Regulation also provides transparent mechanisms, in a spirit of solidarity, for the coordination of planning for, and response to, an emergency at Member State, regional and Union levels.

The Ministry of Energy was designated and notified as the competent authority for the implementation of the measures provided for in the Regulation.

The risk assessment was carried out in accordance with the requirements set out in Article 9 of the Regulation and included the implementation of the following tasks:

1) assumptions and data necessary for the calculation of the N1 formula; 

2) taking account of all relevant national and regional circumstances, market size, network configuration, actual gas flows, the possibility of physical gas flows in both directions including the potential need for consequent reinforcement of the transmission system, the gas storage facility in Latvia and the role of gas in the energy mix, in particular with respect to district heating and electricity generation and for the operation of industries, and safety and gas quality considerations; 

3) the risk assessment providing various scenarios of exceptionally high gas demand and supply disruption, such as failure of the main transmission infrastructures and disruption of supplies from third country suppliers, taking into account the history, probability, season, frequency and duration of their occurrence as well as, what is very important in case of Lithuania, geopolitical risks, and assesses the likely consequences of these scenarios; 

4) Identification of the interaction and correlation of risks with other Member States, including, inter alia, as regards interconnections, cross-border supplies, cross-border access to storage facilities and bi-directional capacity.